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Excerpt from an article by DUNCAN JOHNSTONE - co-editor of Rugby Heaven.co.nz - in Stuff.co.nz Sunday, 25 November 2007.

Unbelievable? Inconceivable? Just plain stupid? A great idea that failed? How many games do players need to play to reach their peak?

“Some startling statistics reveal how Graham Henry’s controversial reconditioning and rotation policies left his All Blacks squad severely under-done for the rigours of a world cup.

“The starting XV who lost their quarterfinal to France averaged just over 12 games each for the entire year.

“It’s an indictment on the system when game time for a workaholic player like Jerry Collins is 1011 minutes the equivalent of less than 13 games of rugby.

“But there are some even more damning figures. First-choice halfback Byron Kelleher played the equivalent of just 8.5 games this year before heading off to his lucrative French club deal.

“Senior hooker Anton Oliver played the equivalent of just 10.6 matches.

“Injuries and troubled Super 14 selections contributed to seriously restrict Joe Rokocoko, whose time on the paddock panned out to be 10.2 matches while his Blues team-mate Ali Williams was left with 591 minutes of rugby 7.3 matches.

“Ironically the busiest player this season was Doug Howlett who packed in 1720 minutes the equivalent of 21.5 matches.

“Skipper Richie McCaw had a busy season despite being reconditioned. He started in 17 matches, played in 19 and got in 1288 minutes of action.

Excerpt from the Commentary section.

“…the one question that was critical therefore was whether an expansive approach would stand up under the pressure of a winner take all knockout competition.

It did not – and this has never been more dramatically illustrated than in the France v New Zealand quarter final game. In order to understand the immensity of this game, it is necessary to go back to November 2006 .

In that month, New Zealand defeated France – in France - by 47 points to 3. This suggested that New Zealand seemed to have found the right formula for beating one of their major world cup rivals. They scored 7 tries, creating just 43 rucks and kicked the ball 29 times. They made few passes – just 91 – but were clinical in their execution .

This formula disappeared however in their RWC quarter final match against France. Instead of creating 43 rucks, New Zealand created 165 or almost 4 times as many. This was around 100 more than a normal New Zealand game; was around 50% higher than the next highest in the tournament and is almost certainly the highest figure ever seen in an international match. It was at a scale that New Zealand had never remotely experienced before with an often seen expansive approach being replaced by forward attrition. The successful formula of recent years had been abandoned for some reason and New Zealand found themselves out of the competition.”

This interpretation certainly seems compelling (and the numbers it quotes are nearly incredible!) While the implications and mechanics of “creating a ruck” raise questions there seems to be little doubt that NZ got their game plan totally wrong!

What do you think?

I have been vastly entertained by the Rugby World Cup. It has lasted a little too long – in the sense that I had other work that I’d promised myself to do – but I must admit that, in retrospect, the time was well spent. The rugby wasn’t always exactly champagne quality but I for one can happily forgive the lack of razzle-dazzle if I’m watching real play and real combat. Gaining a metre at the breakdown with a perfect pick and go is to my way of thinking not all that far short of a perfect 1st phase back move. Winning a turn-over by the efforts of two or three players in harmonious mutual support may well be better and consistently destroying the other team’s lineout demonstrates a multi-player coordination the equal of any other in any sport. Am I admitting that these sorts of endeavours make more of an impression on me that kicking a ball between the posts? What do you think?

I now have video of 20-odd matches to help while away those long winter evenings and a host of questions still to answer. What exactly did England do that was different after their humiliation to South Africa? How did Wales lose to Fiji? Was Ireland’s sickening slide really the result of a regression in skill or a regression in spirit? On the other hand one of my perennial questions has been answered. How do you beat a big, brutal team playing 10-man pressure rugby? Easy, it turns out. Play better 10-man pressure rugby.

There is not much doubt that history will show that while South Africa won the cup Argentina was the team of the tournament. A combination of several charismatic players, indomitable (almost) determination, a game plan which in the end turned out to be not quite so rigid as the analysts had decided and the overwhelming glee they brought to their victories has cemented their place in our memory banks. South Africa’s imperious procession through the pool and play-off stages was also impressive – something like watching the Queen Mary coming into dock, I suppose. They did what they had to do with an unruffled thoroughness and with not a little polish. That Habana is the Player of the Tournament is absolutely no surprise (see below: he came 3rd in my estimation!).

England’s turn-around was also a cause of amazement. Much has been made of it elsewhere and more will be but to me the second half of the Samoa game will remain an example of what an unprepared team of good players can do when it finally decides to win.

There was another source of vast amusement in the RWC and that was the antics of the rugby press. We are all inured I hope to the normal level of nonsense - how many times do we have to endure the Bambi’s mother bit? - that most rugby journalists regurgitate on a regular basis but this tournament seems to me to have taken the process to a new level. Yes, I suppose they have to make a living and yes their editors have column-inches to fill but if I never read another story about Wilkinson’s dedication it will be far, far too soon. But why did we see nothing or very little in print about the Fijian back line and their outstanding back row? How come nobody had the vision to remark that the All Blacks looked a little flat? Where was the reporting of Scotland’s lack of ambition that finally sank them? Oh well, four more years, as they say.

Everybody else has done it so now it’s my turn – my team of the tournament picked not necessarily for quality but for watchability and sometimes for sheer bloodymindedness!

15, Montgomery
14, Vilimoni Delasau
13, Seru Rabeni
12, Steyn
11, Habana
10, Martinez
9, Gommersal
8, Gonzalo Longo
7, Juan Smith
6, Akapusi Qera
5, Chabal
4, Matfield
3, Hayman
2, Ledesma
1, Roncero

And what about my players to watch?

Sébastien Chabal +1, +1, 0, 0, +3, +2, +1 Total 8
Brian Habana +3, +1, 0, +1, 0, +3, +1 Total 9
Frédéric Michalak 0, +3, +2, 0, +2, +1, 0 Total 8
Victor Matfield +2, 0, +2, 0, +2, +1, +4 Total 11
Juan Martín Hernández +1, +2, 0, +5, +2, +1, +3 Total 14

Point One: Any team can beat any other team on the day.
We saw it proved three times, now do we believe it? Argentina v France, England v Australia and France v New Zealand. All surprises, all totally unexpected - except by the winning teams one supposes - and all apparently inexplicable by the losers. Oh, it’s a good idea to reach for the usual suspects - the ref, the ball and the weather - but it’s a much better idea to take your lumps and make sure that it’ll never happen again. And just how do you do that? Repeat after me: “Any team can be beaten by any other team on the day.” Your job is to make sure it doesn’t happen to you!

Point Two: Do the basics well and the rest will happen.
They may be the sensation of the tournament but no-one is ever going to call the 2007 Pumas a wonderful team. Gusto yes, world-beating no! Of course they include the sublime Hernandez and the irritating but endearing Pichot but one to fifteen there are weaknesses. What they have done, however, almost to the last, is to show that if you execute your game plan perfectly, or nearly so, good things will inevitably accrue. Maybe it doesn’t matter too much exactly what your game plan is but obviously it must be carefully tailored to accentuate your strengths and hide your weaknesses. Mind you, it helps if your opponents forget Point One above (France - that’s if they ever knew it!) or are in a mindset from the Moon (Ireland) or have been coached into a stultifying mediocracy by a coach who is so risk averse that I bet he wears both belt and braces under his track-suit top (Scotland). Sadly, when fatigue and lack of real depth reduce the near perfection only a little a decent but certainly not spectacular team playing totally within themselves can upset your applecart (South Africa) and it’s then that the game plan shows its frayed edges. Still, thanks for the reminder!

Point Three: If at first you don’t succeed maybe it’s finally time for plain speaking.
Much has already been made of the meeting that took place in the English camp after they were demolished by the Springboks and much, much more will be made of it over the hundred years or so. Ostensibly players, coaches and management expressed their dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in no uncertain terms. What is amazing, however, is that things actually changed. A group of elite athletes playing in perhaps the best - certainly one of the toughest - leagues in the world transformed themselves overnight from a dejected rabble into a very fair facsimile of a winning team. Wonders will never cease! So it can happen no matter what our deepest fears predict. It is not possible to say that today’s England is a good team, it’s not even possible to say that the change we’ve seen will be sufficient to put them on the right track for the future but we can certainly say it is a team and my opinion is that it’s the first time in years we’ve been able to go that far.

Point Four: Never let up, ever and never think you can defend your way to victory.
Nuff said. France v England. It just wasn’t going to happen when you use the wrong substitutes - Michalak obviously with orders to control the game but too flaky to add to the defence, Harinordoquy too late to make a difference and, criminally, Poux much too late in the obviously tiring front row - and the wrong game plan - kick, kick, kick when run, run, run was obviously needed. I’m reliably informed that somebody once said that the best defence is attack. He was right.

Only four points? Yes, only four. But four crucial, central, important and indispensible lessons to learn.

Players left to watch!

Sébastien Chabal +1, +1, 0, 0, +3, +2
Brian Habana +3, +1, 0, +1, 0, +3
Frédéric Michalak 0, +3, +2, 0, +2, +1
Victor Matfield +2, 0, +2, 0, +2, +1
Juan Martín Hernández +1, +2, 0, +5, +2, +1

Looks like Habana and Hernandez are going to run away with it!